Independence, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

778
FXUS63 KEAX 131741
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1141 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Far above normal temperatures are expected today with highs
  across the region ranging from near 60 to the mid 60s.

- Colder air starts moving its way in this afternoon and into
  Wednesday. A few light showers are possible.

- Cooler air pushes in Wednesday. Gusty winds are possible with
  gusts around 25-30 MPH.

- Cold conditions continue into the weekend with a passing
  system bringing chances for light snow Thursday night and
  Friday in far NE MO with additional precipitation possible
  into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1141 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 18z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Northwesterly flow aloft has kept the skies pretty much quiet with
only some high clouds moving into the area. Steady southerly flow at
the surface has sustained warm air advection pushing temperatures
higher with most areas looking to reach the low to mid 60s. A
tightening pressure gradient ahead of a cooler air mass to the north
provides enhancement to the low level flow which helps us reach
these above normal highs.

As this colder air mass approaches the region, upper level CVA
combined with some weak lift from the leading edge of this air mass
look to be enough to develop some isolated to scattered showers
through the afternoon hours. The better setup for showers does not
arrive until after sunset as the 500mb trough continues to dig into
the region. This favors the development of showers south of I-70
which the greatest chances being in the Lake of the Ozarks region.
Coverage of showers is expected to be isolated to scattered.

Behind these showers, cooler Canadian air settles in trending
temperatures down starting at 12:00:01 AM Wednesday. Highs Wednesday
will record as the 40s, but the steady flow of cold air will keep
temperatures falling through the day. Decreasing clouds and sunshine
will enable temperatures to rebound slightly, but they will not be
able to overcome the strong cold air advection behind the front.
Winds are expected to be fairly gusty; however, expectation have
been tampered slightly as the axis of strongest flow has shifted
north and east. Still though, gusts of 20-30 MPH are expected.

A secondary push of cold air enters the region Wednesday afternoon
further lowering temperatures. Overnight lows Wednesday into
Thursday bottom out around 15-20 degrees which is nearly 35-50
degrees lower than today`s highs. A compressed upper level ridge
rolls through Thursday ahead of another Canadian trough the
progresses southward into the CONUS Thursday night. This system
mainly moves through the Great Lakes only clipping portions of far
NE MO with some light snowfall. There is the potential for this
snowfall to expand westward with further ensemble member updates,
but that appears to be heavily reliant on the track of the system
as well as the post frontal environment of Tuesday/Wednesday`s front
(i.e will the air be too dry). So far none of these scenarios point
at chances for any significant snowfall across the region towards
the end of the week at this point. Further forecast updates combined
with the resolution of passing systems midweek will add much more
clarity to the weather picture and refine expectations.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1141 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Isolated to widely scattered rain will develop between 00-06z
Wednesday as a cold front passes through the region. Have maintained
PROB30 groups for light rain at MCI, MKC, and IXD for this period.
Low-level dry air will keep cloud bases mainly between 5 and 10kft
during this period, followed by rising cloud bases and clearing
skies thereafter. Winds through 00z will be steady from the W-SW
around 10 kts. Following the frontal passage, winds will become NW
and eventually N and increase, sustained at 12-16 kts with gusts to
25-30 kts after 12z Wednesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Snyder
DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Snyder